The Washington Post is reporting that “the U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.”
But the military has long overestimated the size and impact of al-Qaeda in Iraq. According to “working-level analysts and troops on the ground,” in the first half of 2007, Al Qaeda accounted for just 8 percent to 15 percent of attacks in Iraq and the group is believed to comprise just 2 percent to 5 percent of the Sunni insurgency. A recent Congressional Research Service report noted that attacks from al Qaeda are only a small percentage of the violence in Iraq.
In fact, even the President’s own Benchmark Assessment Report, released on September 14th, concedes that the “main elements” of Iraqi violence “include a communal struggle for power and resources between the Shi’a majority and Sunni, Kurd, and other minorities.”
The Post article also points out that “views of the extent to which AQI has been vanquished also reflect differences over the extent to which it operates independently from Osama bin Laden’s central al-Qaeda organization, based in Pakistan.”
“Everyone has an opinion about how franchisement of al-Qaeda works,” a senior White House official said. “Is it through central control, or is it decentralized?” The answer to that question, the official said, affects “your ability to determine how successfully [AQI] has been defeated or neutralized. Is it ‘game over’?”
But since the administration maintains that the fight against Al Qaeda in Iraq is connected to the greater struggle against Al Qaeda Central in the “war on terror,” then judging by the administration’s own standards, the Iraq war has been unsuccessful in reducing the overall Al Qaeda threat. Military officials have consistently underestimated Al Qaeda’s resiliency. As ThinkProgress notes, Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the leading advocate of a “declaration of victory” over Al Qaeda, “also fiercely advocated the declaration of Mission Accomplished” in 2003. President Bush has made similar missteps. Here is a sampling:
- Thanks to President Musharraf’s leadership, on the al Qaeda front we’ve dismantled the chief operators of al Qaeda…over 500 al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists are detained, they’re no longer a problem. So slowly but surely, we’re dismantling the networks. [White House, 6/24/04]
- We have gone after al Qaeda and other terrorists with relentless determination, disrupting their communications, planning, training, and financing. We have put the enemy on the run, and now they spend their days avoiding capture, because they know America’s Armed Services are on their trail. [White House, 5/27/05]
- Absolutely, we’re winning. Al Qaeda is on the run…We’re winning, and we will win, unless we leave before the job is done. And the crucial battle right now is Iraq. [White House, 6/25/06]
But according to the National Intelligence Estimate, “Al Qaeda has reconstituted its core structure along the Pakistani border and may now be a stronger and more resilient organization today than it appeared a year ago.” Similarly, in early September, the Washington Post reported that “by drawing on lessons learned during 15 years of failed campaigns to destroy it,” Al Qaeda “has grown stronger, rebuilding the organizational framework that was badly damaged after the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan.”
While the extent of the relationship between Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda Central may not be known, one thing is certain: Bush’s ill planned “war on terror” and America’s continued presence in Iraq only fuels Al Qaeda’s recruitment efforts and endangers American lives.