BodyPolitik has compiled a list of indicators demonstrating that — contrary to the President’s overtures — escalation in Iraq has failed to produce the necessary conditions for reconciliation in Iraq.The American people must stand up against the administration’s attempts to “water down” intelligence assessments, and pressure Congress to reverse course in Iraq. After reviewing the information below, please contact Congress and ask them to bring our troops home. You can find contact information for your Representatives HERE and for your Senators HERE.

SECTARIAN KILLINGS ARE RISING

“[T]he death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago.” [AP, 8/25/07]

According to the White House’s “Benchmark Assessment Report,” “the increase in ethno-sectarian deaths in July and August of 2007 — largely a function of three sizable car bomb attacks in Kirkuk and Ninewa provinces — demonstrates the challenge that ethno-sectarian violence continues to pose for Iraq, particularly in rural locations that have light security force presence.” [White House, 9/14/07]

CIVILIAN DEATHS ARE RISING

“Bombings, sectarian slayings and other violence related to the war killed at least 1,773 Iraqi civilians in August, the second month in a row that civilian deaths have risen, according to government figures…” [LA Times, 9/1/07]

According to the latest GAO report on progress in Iraq, “the number of attacks against Iraqi civilians remains unchanged.” [WP, 8/29/07]

ETHNIC CLEANSING, SECTARIAN DIVISIONS RISING

The surge of U.S. troops — meant in part to halt the sectarian cleansing of the Iraqi capital — has hardly stemmed the problem. The number of Iraqi civilians killed in July was slightly higher than in February, when the surge began. … Rafiq Tschannen, chief of the Iraq mission for the International Organization for Migration, says that the fighting that accompanied the influx of U.S. troops actually “has increased the [internally displaced persons] to some extent.” [Newsweek, 9/6/07]

“The number of Iraqis fleeing their homes has soared since the American troop increase began in February, according to data from two humanitarian groups, accelerating the partition of the country into sectarian enclaves.” [NYT, 8/23/07]

According to the National Intelligence Estimate, “the polarization of communities is most evident in Baghdad, where the Shia are a clear majority in more than half of all neighborhoods and Sunni areas have become surrounded by predominately Shia districts. Where population displacements have led to significant sectarian separation, conflict levels have diminished to some extent because warring communities find it more difficult to penetrate communal enclaves.” [National Intelligence Estimate, 8/23/07]

Baghdad “is a patchwork quilt of neighborhoods split along sectarian lines that appears to have become more balkanized, not less, in the last six months.” [LA Times, 9/4/07]

“According to the United Nations, attacks against religious and ethnic minorities continued unabated in most areas of Iraq, prompting these communities to seek ways to leave the country” [GAO, 9/4/07]

IRAQI SECURITY FORCES HAVE FAILED TO IMPROVE

“Iraq’s security forces have made “uneven progress” and will be unable to take over security on their own in the next 12 to 18 months,” according to a study conducted by a 20-member panel led by retired Gen. James Jones. The group recommends “scrapping Iraq’s national police force, which it describes as dysfunctional and infiltrated by militias.” [HuffPost, 9/5/07]

According to the latest GAO report on Iraq, “the capabilities of Iraqi security forces have not improved.” [WP, 8/29/07]

“There are still challenges in developing Iraqi institutions to sustain existing forces, delays in obtaining required equipment, persistent ethno-sectarian influences and political interference, a limited pool of trained officers and non-commissioned officers (NCOs), and attrition from combat.” [White House, 9/14/07]

“The Iraqi Police has not made satisfactory progress, as some elements still act with a sectarian bias.” [White House, 9/14/07]

Satisfactory progress has not been made toward eliminating militia control of local security, in other areas, as evidenced by continued militia influence of certain Baghdad neighborhoods and other areas across Iraq.” [White House, 9/14/07]

A Pentagon report pushed back “the target date for putting Iraqi authorities in charge of security in all 18 provinces…to at least next July.” The delay “highlights the difficulties in developing Iraqi police forces and the slow pace of economic and political progress in some areas…The Pentagon report submitted to Congress on Monday hinted at the possibility of further delays.” [International Herad Tribune, 9/19/07]

ESCALATION IS BREAKING OUR MILITARY

After having dinner with Gen. David Patreus, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) reports that the general will express his concern that the “troops were being pushed to the limit.” [Chicago Tribune, 8/30/07]

Ret. Maj. Gen. John Batiste wrote in an op-ed last week, “The war in Iraq is breaking our fine Army and Marine Corps, and we are perilously close to doing damage that will take more than a decade to fix.” [ThinkProgress, 8/22/07]

NUMBER OF CHILD FIGHTERS IN IRAQ RISING

“Child fighters, once a rare presence on Iraq’s battlefields, are playing a significant and growing role in kidnappings, killings and roadside bombings in the country, U.S. military officials say. Boys, some as young as 11, now outnumber foreign fighters at U.S. detention camps in Iraq.” [LA Times, 8/27/07]

VIOLENCE TO REMAIN HIGH

[L]evels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high [over next six to 12 months] and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance.” [NIE, 8/23/07]

REFUGEE CRISIS WILL CONTINUE

Population displacement resulting from sectarian violence continues, imposing burdens on provincial governments and some neighboring states and increasing the danger of destabilizing influences spreading across Iraq’s borders over the next six to 12 months.” [NIE, 8/23/07]

INSURGENCY MIGRATING TO NORTHERN IRAQ

“Some of the recent bloodshed appears the result of militant fighters drifting into parts of northern Iraq, where they have fled after U.S.-led offensives” [AP, 8/25/07]

SURGE IS ARMING LOCAL INSURGENTS

“…Military and government officials highlight progress on the local, neighborhood and even street level. Much of it hinges on the future of deals struck with former insurgents who until recently were aiming their guns at U.S. forces.” [LA Times, 9/4/07]

NO POLITICAL PROGRESS

A report released by the Congressional Research Service has found that “the boycott of the government by certain Shiite and Kurdish political blocs has left Iraq’s leadership hanging by a thread.” Kenneth Katzman, the author of the study, also “challenged the success of the Baghdad Security Plan, known as the troop “surge,” which President Bush claims is working. “I would even question the military progress,” he said. [NY Daily News, 9/6/07]

The Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition, Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties. [NIE, 8/23/07]

“On that point, political progress at the national level has still been disappointing. The natural tension between groups has been exacerbated by political blocs threatening to withdraw support from the government. These threats were not fully carried out in most cases, but they have contributed to an environment of mistrust and gridlock.” [White House, 9/14/07]

“The Government of Iraq has not made satisfactory progress toward enacting and implementing legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon revenue.” [White House, 9/14/07]

LACK OF BASIC SERVICES

“Before the war, Baghdad residents received 16-24 average hours of electricity each day. But on July 19, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker said that residents of Baghdad are now receiving just one or two hours of electricity each day — the lowest level of the war.” [Think Progress, 7/27/07]

Iraqis continue to suffer from severe fuel and water shortages. “Already ailments such as diarrhea have started to spread in heavily populated areas, mainly in Umm al-Ma’alif south of Baghdad.” [IWPR, 7/8/07]

More than 2,000 people in Iraq are suffering from cholera, which is spreading across the country, the World Health Organization said. The spread of the disease has been accelerated by chlorine restrictions imposed on Iraq due to security concerns. [AlJazeera, 9/26/07]

For a numerical representation of the surge’s failure, see Kevin Drum’s useful metric chart here.

The American people must stand up against the administration’s attempts to “water down” intelligence assessments, and pressure Congress to reverse course in Iraq. After reviewing the information below, please contact Congress and ask them to bring our troops home. You can find contact information for your Representatives HERE and for your Senators HERE.

Updated: 9/26/07